1. Washington Nationals
There were a lot of people who pegged the Nationals as the best team in baseball entering 2013, and we were among them. Injuries, underachievement, and unfortunate luck all played a factor in limiting the team to only 86 wins, but the outlook remains bright in the nation’s capitol. Well, for baseball anyway. Bryce Harper‘s incredible start has been overshadowed only by the otherworldly Mike Trout, but lest we forget he’s been excellent in every fact of the game and is just now 21. Harper is beefed up (which seldom means anything), and an injury free season from him and resurgent teammate Jayson Werth could go a long way to helping the team plate runs. Or playte runs if you’re Werth. Ian Desmond‘s blend of power, speed, and capable glove work is a big plus at short, and Wilson Ramos is a catcher on the upswing. Anthony Rendon is a great breakout candidate, as he held his own in his first major league showing (.265/.329/.396) and rebounded nicely after a rough July. He has more power than he’s displayed thus far.
While the Nationals have nice pieces up and down their lineup (and in the middle, obviously), the real story here is a potentially dominant pitching staff. Despite the organization’s plans going a bit awry last summer, the staff was still exemplary if not a bit underwhelming. Stephen Strasburg‘s luster has dulled, but don’t be fooled; the guy is still just 25 and his experimentation with pitching more to contact still yielded a K% of 26.1. He’s a true ace, and he should clear 200 innings for the first time in 2014. Behind him is Jordan Zimmermann, a 27-year-old who uses puke-worthy command to get the job done. While his strikeout rate is fairly pedestrian, the Washington Zimmerperson with one too many ‘n’ may learn to make batters miss more as he ages. As for the rest of the staff, Doug Fister (recently stolen from Detroit at gun point) and Gio Gonzalez make a hell of a pairing behind the front duo. Now that we can safely say Fister will miss more bats and Gio will limit the walks, these are both excellent hurlers. Tanner Roark and Taylor Jordan will vie for rotation time as well, and both seem adept from a stuff standpoint to limit walks and consequently damage. Rafael Soriano, Tyler Clippard, and Drew Storen are once again on hand to anchor the bullpen.
Given Atlanta’s rash of injuries and slight overachievement a year ago, we’ll take the Nationals as the favorites in the NL East. Maybe we were just a year off.
2. Atlanta Braves
It was honestly tempting to pick the Braves to fall out of the division’s top two thanks to the slew of devastating injuries, but then we took a long hard look at the rest of the NL East, downed a double whiskey, and stuck with Atlanta. The Braves held the National League’s best record for much of 2013 before being overcome by St. Louis late, but the talent is there. Freddie Freeman is coming off a big extension and a nice boost of growth (increase in BB%, drop in K%, more line drives), and he’ll be the fulcrum down south. Evan Gattis has pure power, but there isn’t any reason to expect him to replicate Brian McCann‘s value. He isn’t exactly a wizard defensively, and he has never met a pitch he wasn’t super pumped to hack at. The Upton brothers had a weird 2013 with Justin clubbing 14 homers in April before going on vacation and B.J. cratering at a level no one believed possible. Expect a more even campaign from Justin and perhaps even a career year (hell, he’s somehow still only 26), while B.J. rebounding to career norms would make a huge difference. Speaking of comebacks, Jason Heyward is absolutely going to make one as long as he doesn’t endure additional freak injuries. The skill set is there to make that .932 second half OPS a full-time thing.
After Tim Hudson left town for greener (Golden Gate bridge-ier?) pastures in San Francisco, the Braves wisely decided to add free agent starter Ervin Santana once his price came down. The move wouldn’t have been nearly as necessary if Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen weren’t both doomed to their ninth Tommy John surgery apiece (the 10th one’s free!), but that savagery didn’t occur until after the former Angel and Royal signed. Mike Minor is coming into his own (3.4 WAR, career best 2.02/9 walk rate in ’13), but even he will miss a couple of weeks to start the season. Alex Wood should slot in nicely after 11 very good 2013 starts and a history of keeping hitters confused, while Julio Teheran‘s future as a solid number two is totally underway. Unfortunately, injuries may necessitate the letting out of Aaron Harang from his Harangutan habitat and into a major league rotation. It’s not 2005. Whatever leads the Braves do get figure to be safe, as Craig Kimbrel could not get any more ridiculous, Luis Avilan gets everyone to ground out (57.7% in 2013), and Jordan Walden seems to have shaken his habit of letting batters get to first base.
The Braves should still field a perfectly solid team, but don’t be surprised if the Nationals take them down handily. Do be surprised if the Mets or Marlins get anywhere near them in the standings. I’m already excited to write about the Mets and Marlins. I mean, holy shit!
3. Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia run of dominance seems so long ago now, and yet it’s only been a couple of years. The organization’s lack of a dynamic plan has caught up to them hard, and only a strong front of the rotation keeps them alive. Amazingly, late-career Chase Utley was still a 4-WAR asset last season, and he should be able to approximate his well-rounded solidity for a little bit longer. Ryan Howard is a gimpy metaphorical skeleton who happens to be much meatier than an actual skeleton and need a platoon partner badly. Domonic Brown doesn’t have the plate patience or defensive ability to be a star, but at least now he’s shown bursts of power. Marlon Byrd has no hope of living up to his 2013, and he makes no sense for a Phillies team that needs to be working toward a different peak. Darin Ruf will add some power and patience to the lineup when healthy, and he’ll also solve energy problems in Pennsylvania with his hard swings and misses. Cody Asche may actually be a passable third base option until thwomper Maikel Franco is ready, which we’re hoping is later this season for the sake of getting to see him mash.
As we touched on, the front three of Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and the recently signed A.J. Burnett is what will truly keep the Phillies ahead of their even grosser contemporaries. Lee remains somewhat underrated despite his super human command and perpetually high strikeout rate, while Hamels shook off some struggles and ugly surface stats to finish 2013 strong even if injuries will delay his start to 2014. Burnett probably can’t be expected to repeat his magical Pirate campaign, but he’ll be more than a serviceable number three. The back end consists of Kyle Kendrick (at least he doesn’t walk many!) and Roberto Hernandez (at least he isn’t Fausto Carmona!). This is yet another reminder that a team with one eye toward the future might have some interesting younger fellas to use in these spots. Because he’s paid to do so and remains effective, Jonathan Papelbon will resume closing whatever games the Phillies win, while a surgically-repaired Mike Adams will try to get back to being awesome rather than merely good-ish.
The Phillies should hover around the .500 mark in 2014, something they’re getting accustomed to as the team stalls out its plan to construct its next legitimate contender.
4. New York Mets
I’ve already spent a few words hinting at making fun of the Mets, but let me quickly note that the team did top the Phillies in 2013 by a whole game. That’s mostly where the compliments end for me, though. David Wright is one of baseball’s very best, a complete hitter with a fantastic glove and base running smarts. He’s still in his prime, but the Mets have done little to help the guy out. Curtis Granderson enters on a four-year deal, but at this point his contact issues and degrading outfield defense are eating away at his big power’s value. Ike Davis will try to turn things around, but even if he does we’re once again looking at a power-only option. Daniel Murphy has Murphed into a very solid offensive second baseman and potential table-setter, but for whom? (Who? Whom?) Other than Wright and possibly a rejuvenated Granderson, it’s hard not to hate this lineup. The echoes of Chris Young‘s potential and the questions that surround Travis d’Arnaud just aren’t enough to project this team as anything more than filler for 2014.
The Mets have brought in late-career Bartolo Colon mainly to just not walk anyone. He’ll join Jonathan Niese and his still-ugly fixed nose near the top of the rotation, and while they’re both useful pitchers, they’re above out of their depth. Zack Wheeler is a top prospect who appears to be panning out nicely, and he’ll bring a bit of excitement to a team that needs it. It looks like another rotation spot might seriously go to Daisuke Matsuzaka, but we’re betting the gyro is still a much better food item than pitch. Bobby Parnell, who’s solid if unspectacular, will hold down the ninth inning while Jeurys Familia tries not to walk everyone and Jose Valverde awaits his trip to the farm where he can run and play with the other nice Jose Valverdes. The Mets surely wish Matt Harvey wasn’t out with the inevitable Tommy John, but then again so does every real baseball fan.
While the second best-known New York team has some help in the farm system and isn’t making the absurd lengthy commitments to veterans that it once did, the short term hopes of the franchise are not all that enticing.
5. Miami Marlins
Fans and pundits alike sometimes complain about the lackluster support for baseball in Florida, but when it comes to Miami, who can place blame on potential game-goers? The Marlins never know what they’re doing; one season it’s ‘win now!’ and the next it’s ‘um, Casey McGehee is back in America!’ Giancarlo Stanton will try to piece together a truly healthy campaign in which he could hit roughly any number of 500-foot bombs, while Christian Yelich has shown the plate discipline and speed to be a fixture if the team keeps him around like they do no one ever. Signing Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a multi-year deal is akin to licking a light socket for a team like this, and Adeiny Hechavarria is one of the very worst hitters I’ve ever fucking seen. You know what? I don’t even want to talk about this offense anymore. If it gets any worse, someone is going to have to start training all those alligators down there to play baseball. I mean for God’s sake, they outnumber the people.
When you want to talk Marlins pitching (which you almost assuredly do not), you want to talk Jose Fernandez. Just 20 years old with no experience above A-ball, Fernandez put the National League in a sleeper hold and never let go in his rookie season. He misses bats and limits effective contact, and a little refinement in his command could make him even more elite. Nathan Eovaldi has the stuff to be a valuable rotation piece, Andrew Heaney has multiple plus offerings, and Tom Koehler is not the guy who helped you load the new crib into the back of your truck at Toys ‘R Us. Not yet, anyway. Steve Cishek and Mike Dunn have done just fine in the bullpen for a team that doesn’t even really need to have a bullpen.
I want half the players on this team to be alligators. Worst place.
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